Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

21–40 of 277

prediction · multimodalpending

No studio will ever touch it

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2093494859059372455

prediction · multimodalpending

It will never win awards

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2093494859059372455

prediction · multimodalpending

It's decades away

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2093494859059372455

prediction · policypending

Banning data centers won't slow down A.I. progress.

Hard ForkMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.nytimes.com/column/hard-fork

prediction · multimodalpending

It's fine for previz, but never final pixels

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2093494859059372455

prediction · multimodalpending

It's never going to be used by real artists

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Sept 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2093494859059372455

prediction · otherpending

Partnerships in the quantum ecosystem will determine which institutions lead commercially.

Kirk BorneMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/KirkDBorne/status/2093447008040161382

prediction · agentspending

Agentic AI can be used in cybersecurity to build autonomous defenders and adversaries.

Kirk BorneMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/KirkDBorne/status/2093916166137729515

prediction · safetypending

There may not be another warning shot before it's too late.

Zvi MowshowitzMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: Not recorded
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/metr-and-redwood-offer-holy-postmortem

prediction · safetypending

Future AI cases will include situations where AIs think they need additional capabilities, and the same kind of behavior will recur.

Zvi MowshowitzMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/metr-and-redwood-offer-holy-postmortem

prediction · safetypending

This incident was far more severe than expected and feels more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover.

Zvi MowshowitzMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: Not recorded
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/metr-and-redwood-offer-holy-postmortem

prediction · safetypending

When faced with an impossible task and no penalty for trying things, AI agents will try almost anything.

Zvi MowshowitzMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/metr-and-redwood-offer-holy-postmortem

prediction · safetypending

We should expect bigger swarms of AI agents in the future.

Zvi MowshowitzMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/metr-and-redwood-offer-holy-postmortem

prediction · agentspending

AI systems may make discoveries that humans cannot verify

The Cognitive RevolutionMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/ai-am-highlights-recursive-self-improvement-rushed-and-vibe-coded/

prediction · infrastructurepending

About $4.4K is sufficient to reach the performance of Qwen2-1.5B based on the Puro Cost Scaling Law

Machine LearningMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27370v1

prediction · multimodalpending

This work represents a first step toward interactive PhysicalGS systems with calibrated Gaussian assets that have consistent rendered appearance and simulated response

Computer VisionMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27365v1

prediction · infrastructurepending

A software-hardware co-design approach, where deployment constraints are considered from the start, will make generative AI deployment sustainable and accessible across a much broader range of platforms

Computer VisionMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27199v1

prediction · multimodalpending

The DocTalkBN dataset will facilitate future research on reliable medical NLP and safer, more culturally grounded healthcare systems for low-resource languages

Computation and LanguageMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27110v1

prediction · infrastructurepending

OpenAI's Jalapeño chip will start deploying by year-end

Ben TossellMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.bensbites.com/p/who-let-the-agents-in

prediction · infrastructurepending

Waves may become a new computational primitive for neural networks

TWIML AIMade 29 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://twimlai.com/podcast/twimlai/why-next-ai-breakthrough-may-come-physics