Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

1–20 of 22

prediction · reasoningpending

AI will struggle in developing new mathematical theories in the near term

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084994910437159402

prediction · reasoningpending

AI will not be superior to the best human mathematicians in the near term

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084994910437159402

prediction · reasoningpending

AI will struggle in writing clear, understandable mathematical proofs in the near term

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084994910437159402

prediction · reasoningpending

Very soon, AI systems will become robustly better than human mathematicians at solving mathematical problems

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084994910437159402

prediction · reasoningpending

Astra will be a letdown for people dreaming it is imminent ASI, similar to how GPT-5 was a letdown

Gary MarcusMade 03 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084041274521473412

prediction · reasoningpending

AI models will not deliver the same quality of results on most real-world problems as they do on math problems

Gary MarcusMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083563958259359905

prediction · reasoningpending

There may be many corners of math where Astra is less effective

Gary MarcusMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083682199086490037

prediction · reasoningpending

Astra-like models will likely not deliver quality results for most real-world problems despite being usable

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083564675099492756

prediction · reasoningpending

Astra will likely disappoint like previous hyped models

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083566378481856593

prediction · reasoningpending

Astra will be a major step for scientific reasoning

Noam BrownMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2083467194663571701

prediction · reasoningpending

Fine-tuning LLMs for efficient reasoning with non-invasive interventions that preserve original model behavior could become a standard technique in the field, similar to how quantization has become standard

Thomas WolfMade 29 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/Thom_Wolf/status/2074418635288813649

prediction · reasoningpending

AI reasoning capabilities will continue to advance significantly year over year

Noam BrownMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2077762676932165996

prediction · reasoningpending

Scientists and researchers will be able to accomplish significant work with GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra

Noam BrownMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2075646048425431469

prediction · reasoningpending

AI may eventually move to directly generating binary code, but textual code representations still offer advantages for reasoning

John CarmackMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/2072152520374280269

prediction · reasoningpending

When AI makes mathematical proofs cheap, mathematicians' work will shift toward asking deep questions and formulating bold new conjectures

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548

prediction · reasoningpending

When AI makes mathematical proofs cheap, mathematicians' work will increasingly shift toward asking deep questions and formulating bold new conjectures

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548

prediction · reasoningpending

When AI makes mathematical proofs cheap, mathematicians' work will increasingly shift toward asking deep questions and formulating bold new conjectures

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548

prediction · reasoningpending

AI will make mathematical proofs cheap

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548

prediction · reasoningpending

When AI makes proofs cheap, mathematicians' work will shift toward asking deep questions and formulating new conjectures

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548

prediction · reasoningpending

When AI makes mathematical proofs cheap, mathematicians' work will shift toward asking deep questions and formulating new conjectures

Denny ZhouMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/denny_zhou/status/2081430796108513548