80,000 Hours
Governments should slow AI development while we work out which alignment methods can be trusted
Geoffrey Irving expects full-blown superintelligence in roughly two to three years
People consistently make big mistakes when thinking about AGI timelines in 14 identifiable ways
Geoffrey Irving expects full-blown superintelligence in roughly two to three years
Many AI researchers believe there will not be many jobs left for today's 17-year-olds due to AI advancement
Once frontier AI becomes a core economic input post-AGI, countries without access to it will lack true sovereignty as they become dependent customers with no economic leverage
Despite the feasibility of a coalition-built frontier model, it probably won't happen due to political and economic barriers including sovereign debt concerns, lack of business case, US coercion risks, and domestic backlash