Francois Chollet
Intelligence is the ability to make sense of new problems on the fly, not a-priori competence.
General intelligence consists in showing intelligence regardless of the problem.
Google's position in AI remains strong despite reports suggesting otherwise
In 2023 and early 2024, Chollet underestimated the long-term importance of LLMs
The early 2023 narrative that scaling up base LLMs alone could solve AGI did not pan out
Future AI in 15 years will not be based on the LLM stack but will necessarily move closer to symbolic learning as its optimal final form
AI will inevitably move to 'patch (2)' in the long term as a more fundamental solution to deep learning's limitations
In the future, AI will not be based on the primitive stack of today, and both training and inference will be incredibly cheap.
Future researchers will investigate model weights from 21st century AI systems to reconstruct cultural information
The era of new model launches as big milestones will eventually come to an end
AI models will be continuously updated with no widely publicized version numbers within less than 2 years
The era of new model launches as big milestones will end, with models being continuously updated instead
Continuous model updates with no version numbers will happen in less than 2 years
The era of new model launches as major milestones will end
Model launches will transition from versioned releases to continuous updates within 2 years
The era of new model launches as big milestones will end within less than 2 years, with models being continuously updated instead
AI model launches as discrete milestone events will end within less than 2 years, replaced by continuous updates without version numbers
Model launches as big milestones will end and models will be continuously updated without publicized version numbers within less than 2 years
AI models will transition to continuous updates without version numbers in less than 2 years
The era of new model launches as big milestones will end, with models being continuously updated without widely publicized version numbers
Model launches as big milestones will end within 2 years, with models being continuously updated without widely publicized version numbers
AI model launches as big milestone events will end within less than 2 years, replaced by continuous updates without publicized version numbers