Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

261–277 of 277

prediction · agentspending

The role of AI and humans in work is inverting: AI was the copilot in 2024, but humans will become the copilot in 2025 and beyond

Jim FanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/2004633997662716397

prediction · scalingpending

Demand for compute will continuously exceed supply due to the multiplier effect of increased compute power on progress towards goals

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2005423098661892290

prediction · multimodalpending

Runway and Adobe will develop highly specialized AI capabilities for professional workflows that will be exclusively available in Adobe applications

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2006059919611441394

prediction · generalpending

The dominance of LLMs may soon start to decline as newer, more sound approaches emerge

Gary MarcusMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-cartoon-of-the-year-and-five-rereadings

prediction · generalpending

Neurosymbolic AI will displace pure LLMs over time

Gary MarcusMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-cartoon-of-the-year-and-five-rereadings

prediction · reasoningpending

AI systems are approaching the capability to perform complex reasoning needed for scientific breakthroughs

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006154439208337417

prediction · multimodalpending

AI capabilities for education are only going to get better

Jeff DeanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/JeffDean/status/2006194293749277183

prediction · multimodalpending

AI will improve learning and education, with Gemini demonstrating this potential

Jeff DeanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/JeffDean/status/2006194293749277183

prediction · scalingpending

Nested Learning could potentially unlock effective continual learning capabilities through higher-order optimization

Machine LearningMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24695v1

prediction · policypending

Large language models will have adverse impact on news publishers through lowered consumer demand, reduced demand for newsroom employees, and an increase in news 'slop'

Artificial IntelligenceMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24968v1

prediction · policypending

AI has the potential to democratize entrepreneurship and the American dream, make healthcare more affordable and effective

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370

prediction · policypending

LLMs are changing how consumers acquire information online, leading to predictions of lowered consumer demand for news publishers and reduced demand for newsroom employees

Artificial IntelligenceMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24968v1

prediction · policypending

AI has the potential to democratize entrepreneurship and the American dream, make healthcare more affordable and effective

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370

prediction · policypending

AI will make healthcare more affordable and effective

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370

prediction · policypending

AI has the potential to democratize entrepreneurship and the American dream

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370

prediction · policypending

AI has the potential to democratize entrepreneurship and the American dream

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370

prediction · policypending

AI has the potential to democratize entrepreneurship and the American dream, make healthcare more affordable and effective

Greg BrockmanMade 01 Jan 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/gdb/status/2006512808104702370