Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

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277

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0

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0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

1–5 of 5

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Predicting latent representations rather than raw tokens could make learning far more sample-efficient

Machine Learning Street TalkMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/machinelearningstreettalk/episodes/AI-Is-Learning-at-the-Wrong-Level-of-Abstraction--Matthieu-Wyart-e3n81u2

prediction · interpretabilitypending

ARC will likely grow rapidly over the next few months

AI Alignment ForumMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/vLFh8HP3hyNy9MCwe/returning-to-arc

prediction · interpretabilitypending

If sufficient alignment of superintelligent AI agents requires pinning down the precise meaning of alignment and turning that meaning into high-accuracy training data and algorithms, we are likely to fail

AI Alignment ForumMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/sFhW3ZnPMJdnB4Dd6/thousand-dimensional-structure-1

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Future methods for multi-token J-lens could provide valuable insights into models' internal algorithms

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6ek6n7yZ5DzfarJHy/towards-surfacing-model-algorithms-with-meta-tokens-in-the-j

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Future researchers will investigate model weights from 21st century AI systems to reconstruct cultural information

Francois CholletMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/fchollet/status/2073873983729287317