Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

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All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

121–140 of 277

prediction · multimodalpending

By 2027, video models will theoretically be able to generate a 60-second video identical to a real recorded video using only the first frame

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2083481213696659942

prediction · multimodalpending

Future video models will contain all possible outcomes and variations of any scenario in their latent space

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2083481213696659942

prediction · generalpending

GenAI will cause immense chaos in society

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083402441962504609

prediction · roboticspending

Elon Musk's prediction that Optimus will be better than the best humans in surgery by end of decade is absurd and will not happen

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083410451824808187

prediction · infrastructurepending

In a bust scenario, Nvidia's collateralized chips would be worth a fraction of their current value

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083349717157859815

prediction · multimodalpending

AI-generated video will transform video games by making them dynamically generated rather than pre-rendered

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 31 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2082962562438828470

prediction · infrastructurepending

Frontier labs will remain viable businesses by integrating and optimizing inference at lower cost/performance than most other models

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082913213092655336

prediction · interpretabilitypending

If sufficient alignment of superintelligent AI agents requires pinning down the precise meaning of alignment and turning that meaning into high-accuracy training data and algorithms, we are likely to fail

AI Alignment ForumMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/sFhW3ZnPMJdnB4Dd6/thousand-dimensional-structure-1

prediction · infrastructurepending

Frontier labs will have a margin advantage on open models for the foreseeable future

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082913213092655336

prediction · infrastructurepending

Frontier AI labs won't immediately become worth $30T but will face challenging financial years before becoming some of the biggest companies

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082827563735625892

prediction · agentspending

QA testing experts can now build software without software developers using AI tools

Simon WillisonMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/simonw/status/2082865397448245407

prediction · infrastructurepending

Current AI valuations will hold up despite challenges

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082827563735625892

prediction · generalpending

Models are very close to being able to significantly accelerate scientific discovery

Sam AltmanMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/sama/status/2082628413769003269

prediction · infrastructurepending

The 20% serving cost reduction for GPT-5.6 amounts to billions of dollars per month in savings for OpenAI

Simon WillisonMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: Not recorded
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/simonw/status/2082641030093127768

prediction · policypending

Retirement money is being invested in AI hype, which will lead to negative consequences

Timnit GebruMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/timnitGebru/status/2082685463211512250

prediction · infrastructurepending

Research on how to best study the effect of harnesses from post-training through eval/inference will be a fairly impactful area for cost savings per performance

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082667019045081511

prediction · generalpending

Anthropic is unlikely to reach $100B+ revenue for the year with $85B+ remaining to achieve

Gary MarcusMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2082615989230023152

prediction · safetypending

There is a real risk that AI capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems

Zvi MowshowitzMade 29 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/frontier-lab-employee-open-letter

prediction · safetypending

Pre-aligned AIs could reverse the alignment-capabilities tradeoff, allowing responsible actors to YOLO while bad actors must carefully restrict their AIs

AI Alignment ForumMade 29 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uMKGaEKRDpoqnZyBh/value-generalisation-3-pre-aligned-ais

prediction · safetypending

It's possible to create AIs whose morality increases with their capabilities through binding morality to empirical concepts

AI Alignment ForumMade 29 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uMKGaEKRDpoqnZyBh/value-generalisation-3-pre-aligned-ais