Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

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All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

0

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

1–20 of 28

prediction · infrastructurepending

About $4.4K is sufficient to reach the performance of Qwen2-1.5B based on the Puro Cost Scaling Law

Machine LearningMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27370v1

prediction · infrastructurepending

A software-hardware co-design approach, where deployment constraints are considered from the start, will make generative AI deployment sustainable and accessible across a much broader range of platforms

Computer VisionMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27199v1

prediction · infrastructurepending

OpenAI's Jalapeño chip will start deploying by year-end

Ben TossellMade 30 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.bensbites.com/p/who-let-the-agents-in

prediction · infrastructurepending

Waves may become a new computational primitive for neural networks

TWIML AIMade 29 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://twimlai.com/podcast/twimlai/why-next-ai-breakthrough-may-come-physics

prediction · infrastructurepending

The future belongs to specialized models built on private company data rather than general-purpose models

Gradient DissentMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://wandb.ai/site/resources/podcast

prediction · infrastructurepending

Big tech companies might be more screwed than expected given how toxic data centers have become

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness

prediction · infrastructurepending

Human level capabilities of intelligence will be fully commoditized by open source models, while super intelligence will likely not be

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-poolside-gets-12b-reverse

prediction · infrastructurepending

The compute needed to be at the frontier of current model recipes is going vertical, and will only become more evident as the world accelerates along recursive self improvement

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-poolside-gets-12b-reverse

prediction · infrastructurepending

Anthropic's AI detector will be trivial to defeat by iteratively modifying text until it passes

Simon WillisonMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://bsky.app/profile/simonwillison.net/post/3mstakhmwr22o

prediction · infrastructurepending

Nvidia releasing a truly open-source Nemotron model could ultimately undercut companies like OpenAI and Anthropic

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-circular-financing-reaches

prediction · infrastructurepending

AMD's acquisition of Taalas points to a future where inference is fast, free and ubiquitous

Julien ChaumondMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/julien_c/status/2085739731187531873

prediction · infrastructurepending

The 'model is the computer' approach will make inference dramatically faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient

Julien ChaumondMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/julien_c/status/2085739731187531873

prediction · infrastructurepending

A single discovery could undermine the need for megascale data centers

Gary MarcusMade 04 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084479075926876196

prediction · infrastructurepending

Pricing, license, consistent releases, and patching feedback will be the boundary between Chinese AI companies (Kimi, GLM, Qwen, DeepSeek)

Nathan LambertMade 03 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2084122774185074710

prediction · infrastructurepending

Demand for tokens is incredibly high and likely to increase as models get more efficient and unlock more use cases

Nathan LambertMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/latest-open-artifacts-23-laguna-s21

prediction · infrastructurepending

More companies will identify token generation as a source of value over time

Nathan LambertMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/latest-open-artifacts-23-laguna-s21

prediction · infrastructurepending

Demand for tokens is incredibly high and likely to increase as models get more efficient and unlock more use cases

Nathan LambertMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2083917557560721890

prediction · infrastructurepending

In a bust scenario, Nvidia's collateralized chips would be worth a fraction of their current value

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083349717157859815

prediction · infrastructurepending

Frontier labs will remain viable businesses by integrating and optimizing inference at lower cost/performance than most other models

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082913213092655336

prediction · infrastructurepending

Frontier labs will have a margin advantage on open models for the foreseeable future

Nathan LambertMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2082913213092655336