general
prediction
bearish
Pending
Open models will likely fill a long-tail ecosystem focused on efficiency and specialization rather than competing with closed models on the most valuable areas
I put this mentally as my most likely outcome – open models are still incredibly useful, but fill a long-tail ecosystem relative to the closed counterparts that have monopoly ownership stakes in the most valuable areas like knowledge work collaboration, drug discovery, SWE, etc.
Nathan Lambert28 Aug 2026
https://www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-everyone-to-fish-for-tokens
Outcome
No outcome evidence recorded.
Next observable
None recorded.