prediction · policypending
Cohere will continue releasing open weight and open source models
Nick FrosstMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
Persisted predictions
Tracked predictions, as recorded.
Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.
277
Tracked
All persisted rows
277
Open
Pending or too early
0
Resolved
Verified, falsified, or partial
0/277
Target-date coverage
0 have a stored due date
75/277
Source + quote evidence
75 have both
Corpus
Predictions
prediction · generalpending
The era of new model launches as major milestones will end
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
AI backlash will be significant enough to matter in the 2028 election
Gary MarcusMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · rlhfpending
Rubrics will be prone to over-optimization similar to reward models, with RLVR being its own distinct phenomenon
Nathan LambertMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · generalpending
The era of new model launches as big milestones will end within less than 2 years, with models being continuously updated instead
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · generalpending
AI model launches as discrete milestone events will end within less than 2 years, replaced by continuous updates without version numbers
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
AI backlash was predicted two years ago and will matter in the 2028 election
Gary MarcusMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · safetypending
Using newly trained models for security fuzzing would make a great startup opportunity
Vipul Ved PrakashMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
Cohere will continue releasing open weight and open source models
Nick FrosstMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · generalpending
Model launches as big milestones will end and models will be continuously updated without publicized version numbers within less than 2 years
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
Cohere will continue releasing open weight and open source models
Nick FrosstMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · agentspending
AI-powered security fuzzing would make a great startup opportunity
Vipul Ved PrakashMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
AI backlash will be significant enough to matter in the 2028 election
Gary MarcusMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · generalpending
The era of new model launches as big milestones will end, with models being continuously updated without widely publicized version numbers
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · safetypending
AI-powered vulnerability fuzzing would make a great startup opportunity
Vipul Ved PrakashMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
Cohere will continue to release open weight and open source models
Nick FrosstMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · generalpending
AI models will transition to continuous updates without version numbers in less than 2 years
Francois CholletMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · policypending
AI backlash will significantly matter in the 2028 election
Gary MarcusMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- medium-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · safetypending
Labs with newly trained models could use them for vulnerability discovery, and this would make a great startup opportunity
Vipul Ved PrakashMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized
prediction · rlhfpending
Rubrics in RLVR will be prone to over-optimization similar to how reward models experience over-optimization
Nathan LambertMade 26 Jul 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term
- Target date
- Target date not normalized