Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

41–60 of 277

prediction · safetypending

Even criminals with very limited skills will be able to target victims at every scale due to AI

Gary MarcusMade 29 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/excellent-new-bill-gates-essay-on

prediction · safetypending

Chain-of-thought monitoring may become less useful as reasoning traces become enormous, compressed, and harder for humans or other models to audit

The Cognitive RevolutionMade 29 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/rl-s-a-hell-of-a-drug-metagaming-reward-seeking-motivated-cot-reasoning-bronson-schoen-apollo/

prediction · otherpending

Anthropic will seek a public valuation of $2 trillion or more

MultipleMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://lastweekin.ai/p/last-week-in-ai-342-last-3-months

prediction · policypending

Transformative AI could reshape power, governance, the economy, and individual freedom

OpenAI BlogMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://openai.com/index/introducing-intelligence-age

prediction · generalpending

Grok 4.7 will be ready in the next 3-4 weeks

Ben TossellMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.bensbites.com/p/grok-bot-is-not-what-you-think

prediction · agentspending

Engineers will spend more time managing the machines that do the work

The Cognitive RevolutionMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/lindy-teammate-flo-crivello-on-multiplayer-agents-memory-why-he-d-ban-the-chinese-models-he-uses/

prediction · infrastructurepending

The future belongs to specialized models built on private company data rather than general-purpose models

Gradient DissentMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://wandb.ai/site/resources/podcast

prediction · policypending

OpenAI will continue work as the EU AI Act advances

OpenAI BlogMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://openai.com/index/advancing-responsible-ai-across-europe

prediction · agentspending

Models will keep absorbing the harness into their weights until it becomes a harness for human attention rather than for the model

Latent Space PodcastMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/attention-interface

prediction · generalpending

Anthropic's revenue in Q2 may not recur at the same scale next year after the collapse of tokenmaxxing, as companies like ATT turn to open source models to save costs

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one

prediction · infrastructurepending

Big tech companies might be more screwed than expected given how toxic data centers have become

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/data-center-madness

prediction · safetypending

Future RL training will incorporate current-generation AI systems to provide reward signals for next-generation AI

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/BB8o7b8A4Aykeksvw/debate-training-reduces-reward-hacking-in-rlaif

prediction · infrastructurepending

Human level capabilities of intelligence will be fully commoditized by open source models, while super intelligence will likely not be

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-poolside-gets-12b-reverse

prediction · policypending

Power may no longer require a society-wide bargain to be sustained, and the people may have only a small seat at the negotiating table or none at all

Dean W. BallMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/these-parchment-barriers

prediction · infrastructurepending

The compute needed to be at the frontier of current model recipes is going vertical, and will only become more evident as the world accelerates along recursive self improvement

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-poolside-gets-12b-reverse

prediction · safetypending

LLM judgments will become an increasingly important aspect of frontier RL training, especially for long agentic trajectories

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/BB8o7b8A4Aykeksvw/debate-training-reduces-reward-hacking-in-rlaif

prediction · policypending

If OpenAI goes down, the damage could spread widely across the AI industry

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-unraveling-has-begun

prediction · policypending

Advancements in autonomous systems and machine intelligence may soon enable states to project force and collect revenue without relying on human cooperation, potentially undermining the fundamental bargain between power and people that has sustained individual freedom throughout history

Dean W. BallMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/these-parchment-barriers

prediction · generalpending

Open models will likely fill a long-tail ecosystem focused on efficiency and specialization rather than competing with closed models on the most valuable areas

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-everyone-to-fish-for-tokens

prediction · generalpending

The established pretraining, midtraining, post-training lexicon may shift to pretraining, reasoning training, and post-training

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-everyone-to-fish-for-tokens