Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

1–20 of 48

prediction · generalpending

Grok 4.7 will be ready in the next 3-4 weeks

Ben TossellMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.bensbites.com/p/grok-bot-is-not-what-you-think

prediction · generalpending

Anthropic's revenue in Q2 may not recur at the same scale next year after the collapse of tokenmaxxing, as companies like ATT turn to open source models to save costs

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/arr-vs-arr-watch-out-for-this-one

prediction · generalpending

Open models will likely fill a long-tail ecosystem focused on efficiency and specialization rather than competing with closed models on the most valuable areas

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-everyone-to-fish-for-tokens

prediction · generalpending

The established pretraining, midtraining, post-training lexicon may shift to pretraining, reasoning training, and post-training

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-everyone-to-fish-for-tokens

prediction · generalpending

Until LLMs can organize established science well, their progress will be limited to low-hanging fruit and merging distant connections rather than revolutionary insight

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/i-wrote-an-ai-textbook-how-long-until

prediction · generalpending

Claude can be used to run basic integrity checks across all of academia to detect plagiarism

Zvi MowshowitzMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/monthly-roundup-45-august-2026

prediction · generalpending

OpenAI will declare AGI achieved internally by December 2026, according to Sam Altman

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-openai-to-reach-agi-bar-by

prediction · generalpending

AI development will continue to become increasingly surprising and dramatic

Connor LeahyMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/NPCollapse/status/2085726715431485673

prediction · generalpending

The pace of AI advancement will never slow down for the rest of our lives

Connor LeahyMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/NPCollapse/status/2085726715431485673

prediction · generalpending

AI can and will create apps via vibe coding that have obvious flaws

Kirk BorneMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/KirkDBorne/status/2085371173827657868

prediction · generalpending

AI will not exceed the intelligence of all people by the end of 2025

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly

prediction · generalpending

It is uncertain whether OpenAI and Anthropic can survive the commoditization of AI

Gary MarcusMade 08 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2084842037552329064

prediction · generalpending

The transition from superhuman coders to superintelligence will be a key pathway in AI development

AXRPMade 03 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

Source unavailable

prediction · generalpending

AI Futures Project predicts superhuman AI will arrive in 2027

AXRPMade 03 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

Source unavailable

prediction · generalpending

Incompetent people believing their own superiority and talking about 'magic intelligence in the sky' may lead to the demise of AI empires, similar to historical empire collapses

Timnit GebruMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/timnitGebru/status/2083904566081282391

prediction · generalpending

AI will inevitably move to 'patch (2)' in the long term as a more fundamental solution to deep learning's limitations

Francois CholletMade 02 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/fchollet/status/2083863030589231160

prediction · generalpending

Proactive management of the transition to powerful AI will yield immense benefits

Nathan LambertMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2083563247610089513

prediction · generalpending

GenAI will cause immense chaos in society

Gary MarcusMade 01 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2083402441962504609

prediction · generalpending

Models are very close to being able to significantly accelerate scientific discovery

Sam AltmanMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/sama/status/2082628413769003269

prediction · generalpending

Anthropic is unlikely to reach $100B+ revenue for the year with $85B+ remaining to achieve

Gary MarcusMade 30 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2082615989230023152