Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

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All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

181–200 of 277

prediction · policypending

Once frontier AI becomes a core economic input post-AGI, countries without access to it will lack true sovereignty as they become dependent customers with no economic leverage

80,000 HoursMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/anton-leicht-middle-powers-agi-left-behind/?utm_campaign=podcast__anton-leicht&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast

prediction · policypending

Despite the feasibility of a coalition-built frontier model, it probably won't happen due to political and economic barriers including sovereign debt concerns, lack of business case, US coercion risks, and domestic backlash

80,000 HoursMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/anton-leicht-middle-powers-agi-left-behind/?utm_campaign=podcast__anton-leicht&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast

prediction · policypending

AI's next chapter will be defined not only by technical progress but by how responsibly and thoughtfully we bring it into the world

Fei-Fei LiMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/drfeifei/status/2077173058700460378

prediction · policypending

AI companies will likely escape the commodity trap by moving up the stack

Narayanan & KapoorMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.normaltech.ai/p/up-the-stack-how-ais-escape-from

prediction · reasoningpending

Scientists and researchers will be able to accomplish significant work with GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra

Noam BrownMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2075646048425431469

prediction · policypending

$4-8 trillion is projected to be invested in AI infrastructure by early 2030s

Narayanan & KapoorMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.normaltech.ai/p/up-the-stack-how-ais-escape-from

prediction · agentspending

Harness engineering will likely evolve in the direction of self-improvement and enable auto-research, while smarter models will keep harnesses simple

Lilian WengMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/lilianweng/status/2074372369213428144

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Future researchers will investigate model weights from 21st century AI systems to reconstruct cultural information

Francois CholletMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/fchollet/status/2073873983729287317

prediction · multimodalpending

Olfactory intelligence could eventually power applications including disease detection, emotion sensing, and consumer devices beyond fragrance

TWIML AIMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://twimlai.com/podcast/twimlai/how-ai-learns-smell

prediction · policypending

We are soon entering the era of virtually free intelligence—the kind that is more than enough for everyday knowledge work

BAIR BlogMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://bair.berkeley.edu/blog/2026/07/07/intelligence-is-free-now-what/

prediction · agentspending

Even when many harness improvements get eventually internalized into core model, the need to specify goals and context will not disappear

Lilian WengMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/lilianweng/status/2074372369213428144

prediction · policypending

Restrictions on OpenAI model GPT 5.6 are likely to resolve

Hard ForkMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.nytimes.com/column/hard-fork

prediction · agentspending

Loops (autonomous coding agents) are inevitable and already here to stay in software development

swyx & AlessioMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/aiewf-daily-dispatch-locomotives

prediction · agentspending

Developers won't go back to writing code by hand after using loops

swyx & AlessioMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/aiewf-daily-dispatch-locomotives

prediction · scalingpending

The current scaling paradigm in language modeling is likely to close fidelity gaps in LLM social simulations

Computation and LanguageMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02464v1

prediction · reasoningpending

AI may eventually move to directly generating binary code, but textual code representations still offer advantages for reasoning

John CarmackMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/2072152520374280269

prediction · generalpending

The demarcation for the beginning of the 'true foothills' of the singularity lies on June 30th 2026, the day arXiv went from red to black

Jack ClarkMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/jackclarkSF/status/2072104836192141477

prediction · policypending

The no moat/more competitors/price wars dynamic will result in scarce profits and may wreck the U.S. AI industry

Gary MarcusMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-catches-up

prediction · policypending

Massive data center investments will not pay off as price wars drop token prices to near zero, with meager profits unable to justify outlays

Gary MarcusMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-catches-up

prediction · policypending

Anthropic and OpenAI will struggle to pull off trillion-dollar IPOs due to government controls and price sensitivity in token budgets

Gary MarcusMade 27 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-catches-up