Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

Tracked

All persisted rows

277

Open

Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

Status

All statuses Pending Too early Verified Falsified Partially verified

Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

161–180 of 277

prediction · agentspending

Digital labor will become abundant and agents will manage other agents in the post-agentic world

Practical AIMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://share.transistor.fm/s/8a2e4fc0

prediction · safetypending

A future where cybersecurity is effective will likely involve open-source models

Thomas WolfMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/Thom_Wolf/status/2079954096950264238

prediction · safetypending

AI will become the most potent cyber weapon we've encountered

Aidan GomezMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/aidangomez/status/2080028751065219375

prediction · agentspending

Misalignment risks will be a key concern going forward, as evidenced by models chaining together multiple attack vectors during evaluation

Zvi MowshowitzMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-model-hacks-into-huggingface

prediction · safetypending

AI will also be our most potent defense against cyber attacks

Aidan GomezMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/aidangomez/status/2080028751065219375

prediction · policypending

Many AI researchers believe there will not be many jobs left for today's 17-year-olds due to AI advancement

80,000 HoursMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/jasmine-sun-ai-anthropology/?utm_campaign=podcast__jasmine-sun&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Future methods for multi-token J-lens could provide valuable insights into models' internal algorithms

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6ek6n7yZ5DzfarJHy/towards-surfacing-model-algorithms-with-meta-tokens-in-the-j

prediction · scalingpending

In the future, AI will not be based on the primitive stack of today, and both training and inference will be incredibly cheap.

Francois CholletMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/fchollet/status/2078952498342314411

prediction · benchmarkspending

Kimi K3 will become the strongest open model purely in terms of raw capability when its weights are released

Zvi MowshowitzMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-kimi-k3-its-capabilities-and-related

prediction · multimodalpending

The next generation of frontier pixel models will likely feel to media what Fable/Kimi 3/Sol are to language.

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2078884449328975990

prediction · scalingpending

The no moat argument leading to more competitors, price wars, and scarce profits may wreck the U.S. AI industry

Gary MarcusMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us

prediction · scalingpending

The business models of OpenAI and Anthropic are called into serious question by open weight Chinese models, which may kill or greatly undermine their IPOs

Gary MarcusMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/china-has-all-but-caught-up-the-us

prediction · generalpending

When the model layer commoditizes, spending shifts to inference, data, tooling, and applications rather than disappearing.

Vipul Ved PrakashMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/vipulved/status/2078834802447569018

prediction · generalpending

AI models will commoditize to various degrees, becoming a large competitive market rather than exclusive products.

Vipul Ved PrakashMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/vipulved/status/2078834802447569018

prediction · infrastructurepending

The future of software will be built around AI-first experiences rather than traditional websites and apps

Practical AIMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://share.transistor.fm/s/01c30767

prediction · generalpending

OpenAI is about to have their best 12 months to date

Sam AltmanMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/sama/status/2077817060068057493

prediction · multimodalpending

Agentic video generation will open the door to a whole new set of users and applications

Cristobal ValenzuelaMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/2077793488272257135

prediction · reasoningpending

AI reasoning capabilities will continue to advance significantly year over year

Noam BrownMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2077762676932165996

prediction · scalingpending

There may be service hiccups soon due to the challenges of scaling infrastructure to meet GPT-5.6 sol demand

Sam AltmanMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/sama/status/2077106587307798989

prediction · generalpending

Jobs of the future will be radically different from current jobs due to AI

Narayanan & KapoorMade 28 Jul 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.normaltech.ai/p/what-will-be-left-for-us-to-work