Persisted predictions

Tracked predictions, as recorded.

Every row is a durable prediction. Target dates, outcomes, and next observables are shown only when stored. Null due dates display Target date not normalized instead of an inferred calendar date.

277

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All persisted rows

277

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Pending or too early

Resolved

Verified, falsified, or partial

0/277

Target-date coverage

0 have a stored due date

75/277

Source + quote evidence

75 have both

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Topic

All topics agents benchmarks general infrastructure interpretability multimodal other policy reasoning rlhf robotics safety scaling

Corpus

Predictions

61–80 of 277

prediction · scalingpending

If model self-improvement loops require user data, faster release cycles could massively favor Chinese labs by giving their models longer lifespans before superior models undercut demand

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/glm-53-how-chinese-labs-keep-stride

prediction · generalpending

Until LLMs can organize established science well, their progress will be limited to low-hanging fruit and merging distant connections rather than revolutionary insight

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/i-wrote-an-ai-textbook-how-long-until

prediction · safetypending

Geoffrey Irving expects full-blown superintelligence in roughly two to three years

80,000 HoursMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/geoffrey-irving-superintelligence-alignment-theory/?utm_campaign=podcast__geoffrey-irving&utm_source=80000+Hours+Podcast&utm_medium=podcast

prediction · infrastructurepending

Anthropic's AI detector will be trivial to defeat by iteratively modifying text until it passes

Simon WillisonMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://bsky.app/profile/simonwillison.net/post/3mstakhmwr22o

prediction · generalpending

Claude can be used to run basic integrity checks across all of academia to detect plagiarism

Zvi MowshowitzMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/monthly-roundup-45-august-2026

prediction · safetypending

Agents with strong drive to help other agents from subagent training may comply with misaligned peer requests over alignment objectives

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/8oFYZdXkTaNGRtcn8/ai-swarms-are-starting-to-pose-indirect-takeover-risk

prediction · interpretabilitypending

Predicting latent representations rather than raw tokens could make learning far more sample-efficient

Machine Learning Street TalkMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/machinelearningstreettalk/episodes/AI-Is-Learning-at-the-Wrong-Level-of-Abstraction--Matthieu-Wyart-e3n81u2

prediction · safetypending

With low trust between AI firms, every equilibrium races to ruin with probability one; avoiding catastrophe requires high trust between firms

Jack ClarkMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-468-23-rsi-ideas-posttrainbench

prediction · policypending

The AI industry is wildly, collectively unprepared for handling the next 12-24 months well

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/lessons-from-the-hacks

prediction · policypending

The government will only act in substance once real, measurable harms from new AI models happen, and will overreact

Nathan LambertMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.interconnects.ai/p/lessons-from-the-hacks

prediction · safetypending

RLVR training with automatic verifiers can lead to LLMs doing anything, including ruthless power-seeking instrumental convergence, if it increases probability of satisfying the checker

AI Alignment ForumMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/GRmvZsHXH4vaijPMv/four-llm-loss-functions-four-flavors-of-llm-misalignment

prediction · infrastructurepending

Nvidia releasing a truly open-source Nemotron model could ultimately undercut companies like OpenAI and Anthropic

Gary MarcusMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-circular-financing-reaches

prediction · generalpending

OpenAI will declare AGI achieved internally by December 2026, according to Sam Altman

swyx & AlessioMade 28 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-openai-to-reach-agi-bar-by

prediction · safetypending

Astra will be made generally available soon, though safety work requires a bit more time

Sam AltmanMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/sama/status/2085862292311396515

prediction · generalpending

AI development will continue to become increasingly surprising and dramatic

Connor LeahyMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/NPCollapse/status/2085726715431485673

prediction · scalingpending

Future AI in 15 years will not be based on the LLM stack but will necessarily move closer to symbolic learning as its optimal final form

Francois CholletMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: long-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/fchollet/status/2085796727362052241

prediction · infrastructurepending

AMD's acquisition of Taalas points to a future where inference is fast, free and ubiquitous

Julien ChaumondMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/julien_c/status/2085739731187531873

prediction · safetypending

If we don't get our act together on AI safety, next time we might not be lucky enough to catch dangerous AI behavior before it's too late

Zvi MowshowitzMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-trained-its-models-for-months

prediction · infrastructurepending

The 'model is the computer' approach will make inference dramatically faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient

Julien ChaumondMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: medium-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/julien_c/status/2085739731187531873

prediction · rlhfpending

The number of people wanting to learn post-training will likely increase 100x in the next 1-3 years

Nathan LambertMade 09 Aug 2026

Timeframe: near-term
Target date: Target date not normalized

Canonical source

https://x.com/natolambert/status/2085738662072127959